Our recent conversation with Jan Rosenow, Professor of Energy and Climate Policy at the University of Oxford, explored how the clean energy transition is accelerating worldwide even amid geopolitical turmoil, from the war in the Middle East to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. We discussed why renewables and electrification are increasingly being driven not just by climate concerns but by energy security, and looked at remarkable real-world case studies from Spain to Pakistan showing how fast the transition is moving.

Watch a recording of the conversation (1 hour) or read a quick recap.

Recording

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Quick recap

The meeting was a discussion with Professor Jan Rosenow of the University of Oxford about the accelerating global clean energy transition, even in the face of geopolitical crises like the war in the Middle East and instability around the Strait of Hormuz. Participants explored why energy security, not just climate concern, is now driving renewables adoption worldwide, examined how falling costs have made solar and batteries the cheapest options in many countries, and looked at standout case studies including Spain’s renewables-driven price drop and Pakistan’s grassroots solar boom. The discussion concluded with reflections on the resilience benefits of decentralized solar, from hurricane-hit Jamaica to off-grid communities in Nigeria and Rwanda.

Disclaimer: This is an auto-generated meeting summary from Zoom, offering a high-level overview of the discussion. Please note that it may not capture all details with perfect accuracy.

Summary

How Far We’ve Come, and How Crises Accelerate the Transition

Sam Matey-Coste opened by noting how fast clean energy timelines now move, with a month in clean energy time feeling like a year. Jan Rosenow reflected on how dramatically the economics have shifted since he began working on energy policy in 2004, when renewables required heavy subsidies to compete with fossil fuels. Today, solar and batteries outperform other technologies on cost in many countries. Rosenow explained that crises like the Middle East war and the Strait of Hormuz closure are producing a familiar pattern: short-term government scrambling to ease energy costs, paired with a longer-term acceleration of the transition, as seen in Canada, France, and the European Union’s upcoming electrification action plan.

Energy Security as the New Driver

A central theme was the shift in motivation behind the clean energy build-out. Rosenow noted that countries without large oil and gas reserves are increasingly turning to renewables, electrification, and efficiency as a matter of energy security rather than climate policy. He pointed to a recent survey in which four out of five corporate CEOs said the crisis had accelerated their company’s electrification agenda due to exposure to volatile international energy markets. Sam added that this marks a historic shift: for most of its history, renewable energy was framed as a climate-driven request for support, but it’s now becoming the default economic and security choice, even for those who don’t prioritize climate concerns.

Spain’s Renewables-Driven Price Drop

The conversation turned to Spain, where a major renewables build-out has pushed clean energy ahead of fossil fuels as the primary power source. Rosenow explained that electricity prices are typically set by the most expensive unit of generation, often natural gas. In Spain, gas now sets the wholesale price closer to 10% of the time, down sharply from a few years ago, while in countries like the UK and Italy, gas still dominates pricing. As a result, Spanish energy prices have remained among the lowest in Europe and even decreased slightly during the recent crisis, while EU averages rose due to higher gas prices.

Pakistan’s Unplanned Solar Revolution

Rosenow described Pakistan’s solar boom as one of the most remarkable, underreported clean energy stories of the past few years. A decade ago, solar played almost no role in the country’s electricity mix; today, roughly a quarter of Pakistan’s electricity comes from solar, mostly rooftop installations. He attributed this to falling costs for Chinese-made panels, rising grid electricity prices, and severe, prolonged blackouts that gave households a strong incentive to generate their own power. While some policies like net metering played a role, Rosenow emphasized this was largely an organic, grassroots shift rather than a planned government rollout, raising open questions about the long-term health of the national grid as more people opt out of it.

Resilience Beyond Decarbonization

The discussion closed on solar’s role as a resilience strategy. Rosenow and Sam discussed how households with solar and storage in Jamaica became informal hubs of support for neighbors after a hurricane knocked out the grid, and how off-grid solar is bringing first-time electrification to places like Nigeria, where a large share of the population still lacks grid access. Sam drew a parallel to Africa’s leapfrog into cellular phones without landlines, suggesting a similar leapfrog from no grid access directly to decentralized solar and batteries, skipping centralized infrastructure entirely.