The Trump administration’s actions in Venezuela might be its most extreme yet.

What started as illegal raids on alleged drug boats last year has since escalated to air strikes, culminating in the deaths of over 40 people—including civilians—and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Some U.S. government officials have attempted to frame this attack as a pro-democracy intervention, but Trump himself has made it clear that what he really wants is complete control over Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.

Trump has publicly admitted to telling oil executives about the strikes before Congress, declared that American oil companies will come in and pay tens of billions of dollars to revitalize oil production in Venezuela, and announced the sale of 30-50 million barrels of oil, with the profits going into U.S.-controlled accounts.

It’s as alarming as it is unconstitutional.

But there are good reasons to think things will not go as President Trump plans:

• The world currently has an oversupply of oil, which drove prices down in 2025. Even with the International Energy Agency walking back its 2030 prediction for a peak in global oil demand, experts still believe one is coming sooner than we think.

• Scaling up production in Venezuela is a tall (and expensive) order. As a result of U.S. sanctions, economic decline, and deteriorated infrastructure, Venezuela’s rate of oil production has gone way down. Maintaining its current rate would require $53 billion over the next 15 years, and tripling it would cost nearly $200 billion. According to Trump, U.S. oil majors will pay to make it happen—and American taxpayers will help foot the bill.

• The oil found in Venezuela is notoriously hard to refine. Venezuela’s oil is incredibly thick and contains high concentrations of carbon and sulfur, making refinement a much more energy-, methane-, and carbon-intensive process. In fact, only certain refineries in the U.S. are capable of processing it—and they’re primarily located near Gulf Coast communities that already experience high levels of exposure to toxic pollution and elevated rates of cancer.

There’s no way of knowing how the situation will play out—but one thing is clear.

The Trump administration is determined to prop up a dying, polluting industry and give the companies destroying our planet the chance to get a little bit richer, no matter the cost to the world or the American people.

That’s why we’re going to fight it every step of the way.

Join us as we take a stand for our climate, the U.S. Constitution, and a future where wars for oil are a thing of the past!